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Daniel Asseraf, DVIEWSION CEO

Long-term planning and its meaning for decision-makers in mega-projects

A large number of definitions and terms have been associated with the concept of long-term planning, including: strategic planning, multi-year planning, forecasting the future, foresight and more. The concept of long-term planning was not always clear because it was difficult to differentiate between long-term planning and medium-term planning, therefore the concepts become vague and the differences between them are not always clear to managers.

Originally, long-term planning was carried out mainly in the army and referred to military planning, but over the years other markets learned and learned to think and plan with a long-term, multi-year vision that sometimes reaches even a decade ahead. Even during World War 2, the American military developed analytical capabilities to anticipate future events and based on them to start strategic planning for years to come. The forecasting and learning focused not only on military events but on everything that could affect the military and defense such as demographics, technology and political trends (horizontal vision and not just military).

Since World War II, long-term planning and strategy have also become the domain of the public when they also included the public and business sectors. In the world of project management, planning has become critical in large organizations with an emphasis on planning for the next decade and the possibility of developing the ability to predict the organization's next projects and the implications arising from them. Sometimes these decisions are fateful and therefore I would like to expand on the uniqueness that we have developed at DVIEWSION in being able to connect the "planning" program in the master plan with the LCC (Life Cycle Cost) the day after.

As far as I know "the prophecy was given to fools" and as far as I know the person who can predict the future has not yet been born, not even one day ahead! At the same time, there are models that allow forecasting in a wide range of topics ranging from economic issues to future growth at the level of organizations and the meanings that result from this.

When discussing a planning program in the world of construction and infrastructure, it is useful to look at the program in three key stages:

- Planning master program

- Functional program/systems

- Final program

The more we understand that the program is dynamic and has a natural dynamic until the final program, the better for all the players and partners in the world of projects! At the same time, it should be honestly said that even in the first stages of the program, it is possible to predict the future in quite a few of the issues related to organizational structure, operational concepts, budgetary implications before and after the project, even when the project is in the range of 10 years ahead, thus bringing to the decision makers the best forecast to receive the The best decisions.

The DVIEWSION company has developed a model (a tool) which allows, during the writing of the planning program/master plan, to predict the future in a complete set of both organizational and economic parameters, thereby creating an optimal understanding of the situation for the next 10 years and enabling the making of fateful decisions before setting off or, alternatively, generating alternatives and alternatives which will allow you to get started by changing the parameters during the presentation of the data.

With this method, it is possible to understand ahead of time the planning and the resulting meanings in large projects, we can better consolidate the concepts and organizational processes resulting from this, and all this so that we arrive at the engineering stage more prepared and mature. From the experience we have acquired so far architectural offices that received a final program after going through the dynamic internal organizational process, enabled faster and more accurate planning and saved a lot of capital during the changes that were required at the start and created a much clearer language between the end user and the execution personnel, including architects, consultants, execution contractors and management the supervision.

And finally, if so far the issue has been clear, then I assume that it is clear that the operation and maintenance people who will manage the building were partners in the initial stages, therefore the process of receiving/handover and the management the day after becomes much easier and thus allows a professional finishing leg in the project.

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